- Oslo office vacancy currently stands at 5.2%, and is currently at the lowest level since 2008
- Substantial vacancy drop of 140 basis points year-on-year
- The development is in line with our forecast, and our estimates until 2021 see little change
- Oslo city centre office vacancy has decreased from 4.7% to 3.3% over the last 12 months
- Limited new supply in the CBD reduces risk for higher vacancy short- to mid-term
We see a continuing trend of tenants seeking highly central locations, making the CBD demand strong - resulting in lower office vacancy. These tenants are mostly private small and medium enterprises (SME's).
This trend is evident in all city centre sub-markets. Employers seek premises that facilitates recruitment – especially within tech and creative disciplines.
Scarce supply and increased rents on high-quality properties has had a positive spillover effect on demand for secondary properties and properties outside the higher cost office hubs. This has contributed to declining vacancy also in most of the fringe areas.
The Oslo office vacancy continues its downward trend for the seventh consecutive quarter. Currently standing at 5.2%, the office vacancy is expected to bottom out below 5% in early 2020 before starting to pick up slowly in the following years.
Future vacancy risk
A strong pipeline of construction activity from 2020 onwards, primarily in the eastern fringe areas, increases the risk of higher longer-term vacancy. We estimate an increase in office vacancy in Oslo to 6% by 2022, marginally up from previous estimates driven by slightly reduced long-term economic growth expectations and a reduced estimate of demolitions and conversions. We recognize the north-eastern parts of Oslo from Hasle-Økern to Bryn, in addition to Skøyen and Fornebu, as the areas with somewhat higher vacancy risk. The risk is fuelled by both new developments and large ending leases.